Measurement for a Lasting Peace: Long Term Evaluations of Peacebuilding Activities in Nigeria, Colombia, Zimbabwe, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract Information: This panel presents results from long-term ex-post, retrospective impact evaluations of ten grassroots peacebuilding programs in four countries. Typically, evaluations of peacebuilding programs do not rigorously measure long-term outcomes because of programmatic constraints which prioritize immediate outcomes, and the complexity of conflict in implementation areas. For example, a 2006 meta-evaluation of contact theory interventions found that out of over 500 studies, only eight employed a rigorous design, and some waited only one day after treatment to measure outcomes (Paluck et al. 2019). Despite this lack of evidence of longer-term impact, funders continue to support such grassroots peacebuilding work, in the hopes that it lays the groundwork for lasting peace. Further, the most rigorous studies related to contact theory have been conducted among youth in Western contexts. Many researchers have demonstrated that P2P programs may not be effective in protracted conflict (Bar-Tal 2004; Bar-Tal and Rosen 2009; Kupermintz and Salomon 2005; Salomon 2006). Further research is needed to know if intergroup contact interventions can achieve long-term impact in contexts when collective identities are defined in opposition to an outgroup, and violent events, media, leaders, and social norms continue to reinforce negative messaging about that outgroup. The study presented in this panel aims to provide evidence to fill both of these gaps (long-term measurement of peacebuilding outcomes, and testing contact theory in the context of prolonged conflicts). This panel presents findings from an ambitious multi-country study that followed up on peacebuilding program participants 3-10 years after implementation, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. It provides lessons for measuring complex outcomes such as attitudes, behaviors, relationships and community norms in a rigorous way, using a counterfactual approach, even after program closure. As a multi-country study, it also examines these findings through a comparative lens, using qualitative comparative analysis to examine variation of outcomes in many programmatic and conflict contexts. The panel presenters will discuss the main findings of the study, then share best practices from early dissemination and contextualization of those findings back to key stakeholders and community leaders, and how they informed the final evaluation reporting. Panelists will also offer insights from their collaborative process with lead researchers in each country where the evaluation was conducted, in particular the process and experience of empowering and supporting local researchers to lead the analysis of in-depth qualitative data. Finally, the discussant offers the perspective of the funder, USAID, on the interest in and utility of long-term evaluations in the peacebuilding space.